The accumulated stock has not yet formed a trend, and the overall aluminum price remains high

Views:1427 Author:Site Editor Publish Time:2020-07-24 10:28:21 Orgin:Site

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Mid-to-long-term contradiction: In the later stage of the epidemic, consumption growth brought about by China's economic recovery is still difficult to match the supply growth rate.

　　 Short-term contradiction: demand recovery in the later period of the overseas epidemic and the sustainability of domestic destocking.

　　 Our view: The aluminum ingot inventory data announced yesterday was 702,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last Thursday. As time enters July, the off-season consumption has gradually manifested, downstream orders have fallen, and the operating rate of processing companies has weakened. However, due to the difference in the pace of recovery of each sector, consumption is in a succession recovery, resulting in high expectations for off-season consumption. In terms of exports, overseas In the stage of economic recovery, but with the high ratio of domestic and foreign exports, the increase in exports driven by the improvement in external demand is still limited, and exports are expected to remain low. On the supply side, new production capacity, mainly in Yunnan, is continuously released. According to the production plan, the increase in production capacity will increase significantly in the second half of the year, and the supply growth trend will remain unchanged. On the cost side, the rapid rebound in alumina prices in the previous two weeks has restored production profits, and some of the suspended production capacity has begun to resume production, which has driven the improvement of the supply shortage pattern and restrained the price upward space. Inventory accumulation has not yet formed a trend to verify that the off-season is not weak, so the overall aluminum price remains high.